Mitengo yepamusoro yezvekurima mumakore achangopfuura yakaita kuti varimi pasi rese vadyare zviyo zvakawanda nembeu dzemafuta. Zvisinei, kukanganisa kweEl Nino, pamwe chete nemiganhu yekutengeswa kunze kwenyika mune dzimwe nyika uye kuramba kuchiwedzera kwekuda kwemafuta emhuka, zvinoratidza kuti vatengi vanogona kusangana nemamiriro ekushomeka kwekupa muna 2024.
Mushure mekubudirira kwakasimba kwemitengo yegorosi, chibage nesoya pasi rose mumakore mashoma apfuura, gore ra2023 rakaona kudzikira kukuru sezvo matambudziko ekutakura zvinhu muBlack Sea achidzikira uye mukana wekudzikira kwehupfumi hwenyika uchinetseka, vaongorori nevatengesi vakadaro. Zvisinei, muna 2024, mitengo inoramba iri panjodzi yekusagadzikana kwezvekudya uye kukwira kwemitengo yechikafu. Ole Howie anoti kuwanikwa kwezviyo kuchawedzera muna 2023 sezvo dzimwe nzvimbo huru dzekurima dzichiwedzera kugadzirwa, asi hadzisati dzave musango. Nemasangano emamiriro ekunze ari kufanotaura kuti El Nino ichagara kusvika muna Kubvumbi kana Chivabvu gore rinouya, chibage chekuBrazil chichadzikira, uye China iri kutenga gorosi nechibage zvakawanda kubva kumusika wepasi rose.
Mamiriro ekunze eEl Nino, ayo akaunza mamiriro ekunze asina kunaya muAsia gore rino uye anogona kuramba aripo kusvika hafu yekutanga ya2024, zvinoreva kuti vamwe vatengesi vakuru vekunze nevanotenga kunze kwenyika vanotarisana nenjodzi dzekushandisa mupunga, gorosi, mafuta emuchindwe nezvimwe zvinhu zvekurima.
Vatengesi nevakuru vakuru vanotarisira kuti kurimwa kwemupunga wekuAsia kuchaderera muhafu yekutanga ya2024, sezvo mamiriro ekudyara akaoma uye kuchengetwa kwemvura shoma mumatangi emvura zvinogona kukonzera goho shoma. Kuwanikwa kwemupunga pasi rose kwaive kwatove kwakaoma gore rino mushure mekunge El Nino yaderedza kugadzirwa uye zvakaita kuti India, iyo inonyanya kutengesa kunze kwenyika, imise kutengesa kunze kwenyika. Kunyangwe zvimwe zviyo zvakadzikira, mitengo yemupunga yakawedzera kusvika pakukwirira kwemakore gumi nemashanu svondo rapfuura, nemitengo yakataurwa nevamwe vatengesi vekuAsia yakakwira ne40-45 muzana.
MuIndia, iyo inobereka gorosi rechipiri pakukura pasi rose, goho rinotevera regorosi riri panjodzi yekushaikwa kwemvura inogona kumanikidza India kutsvaga zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kekutanga mumakore matanhatu sezvo matura egorosi ehurumende aderera kusvika padanho rakaderera mumakore manomwe.
MuAustralia, iyo inotengesera gorosi kunze kwenyika kwechipiri pakukura, mamiriro ekunze anopisa akakanganisa goho gore rino, zvichigumisa goho regore rechitatu rapfuura. Varimi vekuAustralia vangangodyara gorosi muvhu rakaoma muna Kubvumbi unotevera. Kurasikirwa kwegorosi muAustralia kunogona kukurudzira vatengi vakaita seChina neIndonesia kuti vatsvage gorosi rakawanda kubva kuNorth America, Europe neBlack Sea. Commerzbank inotenda kuti mamiriro egorosi anogona kuipa muna 2023/24, sezvo zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika kubva kunyika huru dzinogadzira gorosi zvinogona kuderedzwa zvakanyanya.
Nzvimbo yakanaka yegore ra2024 ifungidziro yepamusoro yekurimwa kwechibage, gorosi nesoya muSouth America, kunyange hazvo mamiriro ekunze muBrazil achiri kunetseka. Kunaya kwemvura kwakanaka munzvimbo huru dzekurima muArgentina kwakabatsira kuwedzera goho resoya, chibage negorosi. Nekuda kwemvura inogara ichinaya munzvimbo dzine uswa hwePambas kubva pakupera kwaGumiguru, 95 muzana yechibage chakadyarwa nekukurumidza uye 75 muzana yechirimwa chesoya zvakaonekwa zvakanaka. MuBrazil, zvirimwa zvegore ra2024 zviri munzira yekusvika padanho repamusoro, kunyangwe fungidziro yekurima soya nechibage munyika yakaderedzwa mumavhiki apfuura nekuda kwemamiriro ekunze akaoma.
Kugadzirwa kwemafuta emuchindwe pasi rose kunogonawo kudzikira nekuda kwemamiriro ekunze akaoma anokonzerwa neEl Nino, zvichitsigira mitengo yemafuta emuchindwe. Mitengo yemafuta emuchindwe yadzikira neanopfuura 6% kusvika pari zvino muna 2023. Kunyange hazvo kugadzirwa kwemafuta emuchindwe kuri kudzikira, kudiwa kwemafuta emuchindwe kuri kukura muindasitiri yebiodiesel nekudya.
Kubva pamaonero ekare, zvinhu zvepasi rose zvezviyo nembeu dzemafuta hazvina kunyatsogadzirwa, Northern Hemisphere ingangove nemamiriro ekunze akasimba eEl Nino munguva yekurima kekutanga kubvira muna 2015, dhora rekuAmerica rinofanira kuramba richidzikira munguva pfupi yapfuura, ukuwo kudiwa kwenyika yose kuchifanirwa kutangazve maitiro ayo ekukura kwenguva refu.
Nguva yekutumira: Kurume-18-2024