Mushure mekutanga kweHondo yeRussia neUkraine, kukwira kwemitengo yezvikafu pasi rose kwakakanganisa kuchengetedzeka kwechikafu pasi rose, izvo zvakaita kuti pasi rose rinyatsoona kuti kukosha kwekuchengetedzeka kwechikafu idambudziko rerunyararo nebudiriro pasi rose.
Muna 2023/24, zvichikonzerwa nemitengo yepamusoro yezvigadzirwa zvekurima pasi rose, huwandu hwezviyo nesoya hwakakwira zvakare, zvichiita kuti mitengo yemhando dzakasiyana dzezvekudya munyika dzakatarisana nemusika mushure mekunge kunyorwa kwezviyo zvitsva kwadzikira zvakanyanya. Zvisinei, nekuda kwekukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo kwakakonzerwa nekuburitswa kwemari yakawanda neUS Federal Reserve muAsia, mutengo wemupunga mumusika wepasi rose wakakwira zvakanyanya kusvika pakakwirira zvakanyanya kuitira kudzora kukwira kwemitengo yemuno uye kudzora kutengeswa kwemupunga muIndia.
Kudzora misika muChina, India, neRussia kwakakanganisa kukura kwekugadzirwa kwechikafu muna 2024, asi zvakazara, kugadzirwa kwechikafu pasi rose muna 2024 kuri padanho repamusoro.
Zvakakodzera kutariswa zvikuru, mutengo wegoridhe wepasi rose unoramba uchikwira zvakanyanya, kudzikira kwemari yepasi rose kuri kukurumidza, mitengo yezvikafu pasi rose iri kukwira, kana muganho wekugadzira nezvinodiwa pagore wasvika, mitengo mikuru yezvikafu inogona kukwira zvakare zvakanyanya, saka pari zvino panofanira kutariswa zvakanyanya kugadzirwa kwechikafu, kudzivirira kushamisika.
Kurimwa kwezviyo pasi rose
Muna 2023/24, nzvimbo yezviyo pasi rose ichave mahekita mamiriyoni 75.6, kuwedzera kwe0.38% kupfuura gore rapfuura. Huwandu hwezviyo hwakasvika matani mabhiriyoni 3.234, uye goho pahekita rimwe nerimwe raive 4,277 kg/ha, kuwedzera kwe2.86% uye 3.26% kupfuura gore rapfuura, zvichiteerana. (Huwandu hwezviyo hwaive matani mabhiriyoni 2.989, kuwedzera kwe3.63% kubva mugore rapfuura.)
Muna 2023/24, mamiriro ekunze ekurima muAsia, Europe neUnited States anowanzova akanaka, uye kukwira kwemitengo yezvikafu kunotsigira kuvandudzwa kwechido chevarimi pakudyara, zvichiunza kuwedzera kwegoho rechikamu chimwe nechimwe nenzvimbo yezvirimwa zvechikafu zvepasi rose.
Pakati pazvo, nzvimbo yakadyarwa gorosi, chibage nemupunga muna 2023/24 yaive mahekita mamiriyoni 601.5, yakaderera ne0.56% kubva mugore rapfuura; Huwandu hwese hwezvirimwa hwakasvika matani mabhiriyoni 2.79, kuwedzera kwe1.71%; Goho renzvimbo imwe neimwe raive 4638 kg/ha, kuwedzera kwe2.28% kupfuura gore rapfuura.
Kurimwa kwemupunga muEurope neSouth America kwadzoka mushure mekusanaya kwemvura muna 2022; Kuderera kwekurimwa kwemupunga muSouth neSouth-East Asia kwave nemhedzisiro yakaipa pachena kunyika dziri kusimukira.
Mitengo yezvikafu pasi rose
Muna Kukadzi 2024, mutengo wepasi rose wezvekudya zvakasanganiswa * waive US $353 / tani, wakaderera ne2.70% mwedzi nemwedzi uye 13.55% gore negore; Muna Ndira-Kukadzi 2024, avhareji yemutengo wezvekudya zvakasanganiswa pasi rose waive $357 / tani, wakaderera ne12.39% gore negore.
Kubva mugore idzva rezvirimwa (kutanga muna Chivabvu), mitengo yezvekudya pasi rose yakaderera, uye avhareji yemutengo wezvirimwa kubva muna Chivabvu kusvika Kukadzi yaive madhora ekuAmerica mazana matatu nemakumi manomwe patani, yakaderera ne11.97% pagore. Pakati pazvo, avhareji yemutengo wegorosi, chibage nemupunga muna Kukadzi yaive madhora ekuAmerica mazana matatu nemakumi mashanu nematatu patani, yakaderera ne2.19% pamwedzi uye 12.0% pagore; Avhareji yemutengo muna Ndira-Kukadzi 2024 yaive $357 patani, yakaderera ne12.15% pagore; Avhareji yegore idzva rezvirimwa kubva muna Chivabvu kusvika Kukadzi yaive $365 patani, yakaderera ne$365 patani pagore.
Mutengo wezviyo pamwe nemutengo wezviyo zvitatu zvikuru zvakadzikira zvakanyanya mugore idzva rezvirimwa, zvichiratidza kuti mamiriro ezvekudya mugore idzva rezvirimwa awedzera kunaka. Mitengo iripo inowanzo kudzikira kusvika padanho rekupedzisira muna Chikunguru naNyamavhuvhu 2020, uye kuramba kuchidzikira kunogona kukanganisa kugadzirwa kwechikafu pasi rose mugore Idzva.
Kuwanda kwezviyo pasi rose uye kudiwa kwazvo
Muna 2023/24, huwandu hwese hwezviyo zvakabuda mupunga mushure memupunga hwaive matani mabhiriyoni 2.989, kuwedzera kwe3.63% kupfuura gore rapfuura, uye kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwezviyo kwakaita kuti mutengo udzike zvakanyanya.
Huwandu hwevanhu pasi rose hunotarisirwa kuva mabhiriyoni 8.026, kuwedzera kwe1.04% kupfuura gore rapfuura, uye kukura kwekugadzirwa kwechikafu nekuwanikwa kwacho kwakapfuura kukura kwevanhu pasi rose. Kushandiswa kwezviyo pasi rose kwaive mabhiriyoni 2.981 ematani, uye huwandu hwegore negore hwaive mamiriyoni 752 ematani, nechikamu chekuchengetedza che25.7%.
Kuburitswa kwemunhu mumwe nemumwe kwaive 372.4 kg, 1.15% yakakwira kupfuura gore rapfuura. Panyaya yekushandiswa, kudyiwa kwezvikafu zvemhuka kuri 157.8 kg, kudyiwa kwechikafu kuri 136.8 kg, kudyiwa kwezvimwe zvikafu kuri 76.9 kg, uye kudyiwa kwese kuri 371.5 kg. Makirogiramu. Kudzikira kwemitengo kuchaunza kuwedzera kwekushandiswa kwezvimwe zvikafu, izvo zvichatadzisa mutengo kuramba uchidzikira munguva inotevera.
Maonero ekurima zviyo pasi rose
Zvichienderana nekuverenga mitengo yepasi rose pari zvino, nzvimbo yekudyara zviyo pasi rose muna 2024 i760 miriyoni mahekita, goho pahekita imwe neimwe i4,393 kg/ha, uye goho repasi rose i3,337 miriyoni matani. Goho remupunga raive 3.09 bhiriyoni matani, kuwedzera kwe3.40% kupfuura gore rapfuura.
Zvichienderana nemafambiro ekukura kwenzvimbo uye goho pachikamu chimwe nechimwe chenyika huru dzepasi rose, panosvika gore ra2030, nzvimbo yekudyara zviyo pasi rose ichave inosvika mahekita angangoita mamiriyoni mazana manomwe nemakumi matanhatu, goho pachikamu chimwe nechimwe richava 4,748 kg/hekita, uye huwandu hwese hwenyika huchava matani mabhiriyoni matatu nemakumi matanhatu nemana, pasi penguva yapfuura. Kukura kushoma muChina, India neEurope kwakaita kuti fungidziro dzekuti goho rezviyo pasi rose rive pasi rose dzinowanikwa munzvimbo imwe neimwe.
Panosvika gore ra2030, India, Brazil, United States neChina dzichave nyika dzinogadzira chikafu chikuru pasi rose. Muna 2035, nzvimbo inodyarwa zviyo pasi rose inotarisirwa kusvika mahekita mamiriyoni 789, negoho re5,318 kg/ha, uye goho repasi rose rematani mabhiriyoni 4.194.
Kubva pamamiriro ezvinhu aripo iye zvino, hapana kushomeka kwevhu rinorimwa pasi rose, asi kukura kwegoho repachikamu chimwe nechimwe kunononoka, izvo zvinoda kutarisirwa kukuru. Kusimbisa kuvandudzwa kwezvakatipoteredza, kuvaka hurongwa hwekutarisira hwakakodzera, uye kukurudzira kushandiswa kwesainzi netekinoroji yemazuva ano mukurima zvinosarudza kuchengetedzwa kwechikafu chepasi rose mune ramangwana.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-08-2024