Mushure mekutanga kweHondo yeRussia neUkraine, kukwira kwemitengo yezvekudya pasi rose kwakaunza kukanganisa pakuchengetedzwa kwechikafu pasi rose, izvo zvakaita kuti pasi rose rinyatsoona kuti chikuru chekuchengetedza chikafu idambudziko rerunyararo nebudiriro pasi rose.
Muna 2023/24, zvakakanganiswa nemitengo yakakwira yepasi rose yezvigadzirwa zvekurima, huwandu hwepasi rose hwezviyo nesoya beans hwakakwira zvakare, zvichiita kuti mitengo yemhando dzakasiyana dzechikafu munyika dzakatarisana nemisika mushure mekunyorwa kwezviyo zvitsva kudonha zvakanyanya.Zvakadaro, nekuda kwekukwira kwemitengo kwakanyanya kwakaunzwa nekuburitswa kwemari yepamusoro neUS Federal Reserve kuAsia, mutengo wemupunga pamusika wepasi rose wakakwira zvakanyanya kusvika padanho repamusoro kuitira kudzora inflation yemumba uye kudzora kutengeswa kwemupunga kuIndia. .
Kudzora kwemusika muChina, India, neRussia kwakanganisa kukura kwavo kugadzira chikafu muna 2024, asi zvakazara, kugadzirwa kwechikafu chepasi rose muna 2024 kuri padanho repamusoro.
Zvakakodzera kutariswa zvakanyanya, mutengo wegoridhe wepasi rose uri kuramba uchikwira zvakanyanya, kuderera kunowedzera kwemari dzepasirese, mitengo yezvokudya zvepasi rose iripo inokwira kumusoro, kana kugadzirwa kwegore negore nekusiyana kwezvinodiwa, mitengo huru yezvokudya inogona kukwira zvakanyanya. zvakare, saka ikozvino kudiwa kubhadhara zvakanyanya kukugadzirwa kwezvokudya, kudzivirira kuvhunduka.
Kurimwa kwezviyo pasi rose
Muna 2023/24, nzvimbo yepasi rose yezviyo ichava mahekita 75.6 miriyoni, kuwedzera kwe0.38% kupfuura gore rapfuura.Zvose zvakabuda zvakasvika 3.234 bhiriyoni matani, uye goho pahekita rakasvika 4,277 kg/ha, 2.86% ne3.26% kupfuura gore rapfuura, zvichiteerana.(Iyo yese yakabuda mupunga yaive 2.989 bhiriyoni matani, kumusoro 3.63% kubva gore rapfuura.)
Muna 2023/24, mamiriro ezvekurima emamiriro ekunze muAsia, Europe neUnited States anowanzo akanaka, uye mitengo yepamusoro yechikafu inotsigira kuvandudzwa kwechido chekudyara kwevarimi, zvichiunza kuwedzera kwegoho reyuniti nenzvimbo yezvirimwa zvepasi rose.
Pakati pavo, nzvimbo yakadyarwa yegorosi, chibage uye mupunga muna 2023/24 yaiva 601.5 mamiriyoni mahekita, pasi 0.56% kubva gore rapfuura;Zvose zvakabuda zvakasvika 2.79 mabhiriyoni ematani, kuwedzera kwe1.71%;Goho pachikamu chechikamu chaive 4638 kg/ha, kuwedzera kwe2.28% kupfuura gore rapfuura.
Kugadzirwa muEurope neSouth America kwakapora mushure mekusanaya kwemvura muna 2022;Kudzikira kwekurimwa kwemupunga kuMaodzanyemba neSouth-East Asia kwave nekukanganisa kuri pachena munyika dzichiri kusimukira.
Mitengo yezvokudya pasi rose
Muna Kukadzi 2024, indekisi yemitengo yepasi rose yechikafu * yaive US $353 / tani, yakaderera 2.70% mwedzi-pa-mwedzi uye 13.55% gore-pagore;Muna Ndira-Kukadzi 2024, avhareji yemutengo wepasi rose wekudya waive $357 / tani, pasi 12.39% gore-pagore.
Kubva mugore idzva rezvirimwa (kutanga muna Chivabvu), mitengo yezvekudya yepasi rose yadzikira, uye mutengo wepakati kubva muna Chivabvu kusvika Kukadzi waive 370 US madhora/tani, zvichidzika ne11.97% gore negore.Pakati pavo, muvhareji mutengo wegorosi, chibage uye mupunga muna February waiva 353 US madhora / toni, pasi 2.19% mwedzi-on-mwedzi uye 12.0% gore negore;Avhareji kukosha muna Ndira-Kukadzi 2024 yaive $357 / tani, pasi 12.15% gore-pagore;Avhareji yegore idzva rezvirimwa kubva muna Chivabvu kusvika Kukadzi yaive $365 / tani, yakaderera $365 / tani gore-pagore.
Indekisi yemitengo yezviyo yose uye indekisi yemitengo yezviyo zvikuru zvitatu yakaderera zvikuru mugore idzva rechirimwa, zvichiratidza kuti mamiriro ezvinhu ose ekugovera mugore idzva aita nani.Mitengo iripo kazhinji yakadzikira kusvika kumatanho akapedzisira kuonekwa muna Chikunguru naNyamavhuvhu 2020, uye kuenderera mberi kuderera kunogona kukanganisa kugadzirwa kwechikafu chepasi rose muGore Nyowani.
Kuwanikwa kwezviyo pasi rose uye kuenzana kwezvinodiwa
Muna 2023/24, huwandu hwezviyo hwakabuda mupunga mushure memupunga hwaive matani 2.989 bhiriyoni, kuwedzera kwe3.63% pamusoro pegore rapfuura, uye kuwedzera kwezvakabuda kwakaita kuti mutengo udzike zvakanyanya.
Huwandu hwese hwepasi rose hunotarisirwa kuve 8.026 bhiriyoni, kuwedzera kwe1.04% pamusoro pegore rapfuura, uye kukura kwekugadzirwa kwechikafu nekupa kunodarika kukura kwehuwandu hwenyika.Kudyiwa kwezviyo zvepasi rose kwaive 2.981 bhiriyoni matani, uye masheya ekupedzisira epagore aive 752 miriyoni matani, aine chengetedzo ye25.7%.
Per capita goho yaive 372.4 kg, 1.15% yakakwira kupfuura gore rapfuura.Panyaya yekushandiswa, kudyiwa kweresheni i157.8 kg, kudya kwekudya i136.8 kg, kumwe kudyiwa i76.9 kg, uye kudyiwa kwese i371.5 kg.Makirogiramu.Kudonha kwemitengo kuchaunza kuwedzera kweimwe kushandiswa, izvo zvinotadzisa mutengo kuti urambe uchidonha munguva inotevera.
Global cereal production Outlook
Zvichienderana nemitengo yazvino yepasi rose, nzvimbo yekudyara zviyo muna 2024 inosvika mahekita 760 miriyoni, goho pahekita i4,393 kg/ha, uye pasi rose rinobuda matani 3,337 miriyoni.Kubuda kwemupunga kwaive 3.09 bhiriyoni matani, kuwedzera kwe3.40% kupfuura gore rapfuura.
Zvinoenderana nebudiriro yenzvimbo uye goho pachikamu chechikamu chenyika huru dzepasirese, panosvika gore ra2030, nzvimbo yekudyara zviyo pasi rose ichange yave mahekita 760 miriyoni, goho pachikamu chimwe chete chichava 4,748 kg/hekita, uye pasi rose. inobuda ichave 3.664 bhiriyoni matani, yakaderera pane yapfuura nguva.Kukura zvishoma nezvishoma muChina, India neEurope kwakonzera kudzikira fungidziro dzekugadzirwa kwezviyo pasi rose nenzvimbo.
Panosvika gore ra2030, India, Brazil, United States neChina dzinenge dzave makambani makuru ekugadzira chikafu pasi rose.Muna 2035, nzvimbo yekudyara zviyo pasi rose inotarisirwa kusvika mahekita 789 miriyoni, negoho re5,318 kg/ha, uye pasi rose kugadzirwa kwematani 4.194 bhiriyoni.
Kubva pamamiriro ezvinhu aripo, hapana kushayikwa kwevhu rakarimwa munyika, asi kukura kwechikamu chimwe nechimwe chegoho kunonoka, izvo zvinoda kutarisirwa kukuru.Kusimbisa kuvandudzwa kwezvakatipoteredza, kuvaka manejimendi ane musoro, uye kusimudzira mashandisirwo esainzi yemazuva ano uye tekinoroji mune zvekurima zvinotarisa ramangwana repasirese chikafu.
Nguva yekutumira: Kubvumbi-08-2024