Musi wa11 Chikumi gore rino, Climate Prediction Center yeNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) yeUnited States yakaburitsa yambiro yeEl Niño zviri pamutemo - mashoko epamutemo aive ekuti "El Niño yasvika". Uyu hausi mushumo wegore negore wemamiriro ekunze wakajairika. Kuongororwa kwemukana kwakaburitswa panguva imwe chete kwakaratidza kuti mukana wekuti chiitiko ichi chive "chakasimba zvikuru" pakati paMbudzi 2026 naNdira 2027 wakakwira kusvika 63%, uye simba rayo "richava pakati pepamusoro munhoroondo nezvinyorwa zvemidziyo kubvira 1950". Avhareji yekufungidzira kweEuropean Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) yakanyanya kusimba: zvinotarisirwa kuti tembiricha yegungwa isingawanzoitika munzvimbo yeNiño 3.4 ichasvika +3℃ muna Zvita gore rino, uye zvimwe zviitiko zvinotopfuura +4℃.
Kuti tinzwisise kukosha kwenhamba iyi: Chiitiko cheEl Niño chakasimba zvikuru kubva pakatanga zvinyorwa zvemamiriro ekunze zvemazuva ano chakaitika muna 2015-16, nenhamba yepamusoro ye +2.6℃.Kana fungidziro iri pamusoro ikaitika, chiitiko ichi muna 2026-27 chichapfuura ne15%, zvichipinda munzvimbo isina kumboitika.
Zvinyorwa zvenhoroondo zvinotiudzei?
El Niño haisi chinhu chitsva, asi pese panoitika chiitiko che "simba guru", chinosiya mavanga munhoroondo yekurima.
1997-98: Nhamba yepamusoro yeNiño 3.4 yechiitiko ichi yaive inenge +2.3℃, zvichiita kuti ive imwe yenzvimbo dzakasimba kwazvo muzana remakore rechi20. Indonesia, Philippines, neThailand dzakatambura nekusanaya kwemvura kwakanyanya. Sangano reFood and Agriculture Organization reUnited Nations (FAO) rakashuma kuti goho rezvirimwa muCentral America nenzvimbo yeCaribbean rakaderera neinenge 15% kusvika 20% zvichienzaniswa negore rapfuura. Dzimwe nyika dzakarasikirwa zvakanyanya. Nzvimbo dzekudyara gorosi muBrazil neArgentina dzakaderera zvakanyanya nekuda kwemvura isina kujairika. MuSoutheast Asia, chiitiko ichi chakatungamira zvakananga mukurasikirwa kweanosvika mamiriyoni gumi nemashanu ematani emupunga.
2015-16: Zvose zvakasvika pakakwirira pe +2.6℃, iyo yaive yepamusoro-soro muzvinyorwa zvemazuva ano. Kugadzirwa kwechibage muIndia kwakadzikira neinenge 4%, uye kugadzirwa kwemupunga kwakadzikira neinenge 1%. Musika wekuSoutheast Asia wakakanganiswa, uye mutengo wemupunga wakakwira saizvozvo, zvichimanikidza India kuramba ichisimbisa mitemo yekutengesera kunze kwenyika. Southern Africa yakatambura nekusanaya kwemvura kwakanyanya, uye simba remagetsi rinobuda mumvura reKariba Dam muZambia neZimbabwe rakadzikira zvakanyanya, zvichikonzera dambudziko rechipiri remagetsi rakapararira munyika dzakawanda.
Muna 2023-24: Sangano reWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO) rakanyora chiitiko ichi sechimwe chezvishanu zvine simba kupfuura zvimwe zvose. Chiitiko ichi, pamwe chete nekudziya kwepasi rose kuri kuramba kuchiitika, chakasunda gore ra2024 kuti rive gore rinopisa kupfuura mamwe ose uye chakawedzera kusanaya kwemvura muminda muzvikamu zveEast Africa neSouth Asia.
Ongororo yakakura yakaburitswa muNature Communications muna 2014 yakaratidza kuti zviitiko zveEl Niño zvinowanzoita kuti kushanda pamwe chete kwegoho repasi rose rechibage, mupunga, negorosi kubve pane zvakajairika ne -4.3% kusvika +0.8%, nepo soyabhinzi dzakabatsirwa neinenge 2.1% kusvika 5.4% nekuda kwemvura yakanaya munzvimbo dzakasiyana dzeAmerica. Kuseri kwedata iri kune musiyano mukuru munharaunda - mhedzisiro yacho haitsamiri pakukura kwechiitiko ichi, asi pane kuti unorima kupi uye chii.
Kufungidzira kwekusiyana kwenzvimbo muna 2026
Mitemo yenhoroondo yakatipa mepu isina kukwana asi inobatsira yengozi.
India neSouth Asia: India inoburitsa mupunga unosvika 24% wemupunga wepasi rose. Monsoon yeIndia ine hukama hwakafanana nehwemabhuku neENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) - munguva yeEl Niño, monsoon yezhizha inowanzova isina simba. Zviitiko zvitatu zvikuru muna 1997-98, 2015-16, uye 2023-24 chimwe nechimwe chakakonzera zvirambidzo zvekutengesera kunze kwenyika muNew Delhi, zvichiendesa kumanikidzwa kunyika dzinotenga mupunga pasi rose. Mushumo weFAO uripo unoratidza zvakajeka kuti njodzi yekusanaya kwemvura muSouth Asia neSoutheast Asia ndiyo "yakanyanya kuipa", ine mukana weinopfuura 50% mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzinosangana nekusanaya kwemvura.
Kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva kweAsia: Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, neCambodia zvese zviri munzvimbo ine njodzi huru. Mafuta emuchindwe anonyanya kukanganiswa - Malaysia neIndonesia ndidzo nyika dzinogadzira mafuta emuchindwe pasi rose, uye nyika dzese dziri mbiri hadzina kupukunyuka chero zviitiko zvakakomba zveEl Niño munguva yakapfuura. Donje neshuga zviriwo muchikamu chenjodzi huru.
Australia: Australia inoonekwa senyika inogadzira gorosi inonyanya kunzwa zviratidzo zveENSO pasi rose. Munguva yeEl Niño, kunaya kwemvura muQueensland neNew South Wales kunowanzoratidza kusiyana kukuru kubva pamazinga akajairika, zvichikonzera njodzi huru kugorosi nebhari yechirimo.
Brazil: Mamiriro acho ezvinhu ndiwo akaoma zvikuru. El Niño inowanzounza mvura yakawanda kumaodzanyemba kweBrazil, izvo zvinobatsira kukura kwesoya. Zvisinei, kunaya kwemvura kwakawanda kunogonawo kukonzera kudzikira kwemhando yekofi uye kuwedzera kwezvirwere zvezvimwe zvirimwa zvine nyemba. Mushumo weJRC weEuropean Union unoratidza kuti mutengo wegorosi rakaoma pasi rose unotarisirwa kukwira zvakanyanya kana El Niño yakawedzera, nepo mitengo yesoya negorosi tsvuku rechando pasi rose inogona kuderera nekuda kwekubatsira kuri kubva munzvimbo dzinogadzirwa neAmerica.
East Africa neSahel: Dunhu iri rinotevedzera pfungwa dzakasiyana nedzeSoutheast Asia - munguva yeEl Niño, mvura inowedzera, asi kana ivhu richikanganiswa uye zvivakwa zvisina kusimba, mvura yakawanda inogona kusakonzera goho asi kuti iunze mafashamo nekukukurwa kwevhu. FAO yapa yambiro yeSomalia, uye chishandiso cheJRC cheINFORM Warning chakaisa nyika dzinoverengeka dzeCentral Africa mu "njodzi huru yekubatsira vanhu".
China: Kare, El Niño yaikanganisa China zvichienderana nenzvimbo. Kuchamhembe kweChina kwainaya mvura yakawanda, ukuwo kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva kwaisangana nenjodzi yakakura yekusanaya kwemvura. Munguva ya1997-98, kwakava nemafashamo makuru kumaodzanyemba kweChina uye kusanaya kwemvura kwakanyanya kuchamhembe kwakadziva kumabvazuva, izvo zvakakanganisa goho regore iroro.
Pfungwa dzekutumirana kwemusika wemakemikari ekurima
Hukama huripo pakati pezviitiko zvemamiriro ekunze nemusika wemishonga inouraya zvipembenene hausi hukama hwakanaka uye hunofanira kukurukurwa zvakadzama.
Njodzi yekuderera kwezvinodiwa: Munguva yekusanaya kwemvura, kuda kwevarimi kudyara uye simba rekudyara kwavo kunodzikira, uye kutenga mishonga yekuuraya zvipembenene kazhinji ndeimwe yemitengo inonyanya kuderedzwa. Munguva yechiitiko cheEl Niño muSoutheast Asia muna 1997-98, kudiwa kwemishonga yekuuraya zvipembenene muIndonesia nePhilippines kwakadzikira zvakanyanya. Izvi zvaive zvichikonzerwa nekuderera kwezvirimwa uye chimwe chikonzero ndechekuti varimi vakaderedza mari yavo mushure mekunge mari yavo yadzikira.
Kuchinja kwezvipembenene nezvirwere: Kunaya kwemvura kwakanyanya munzvimbo dzakasiyana kunotungamira kuwanda kwezvirwere, nepo kusanaya kwemvura kunogona kukonzera kupinda kana kubuda kwezvipembenene zvakasiyana. Munhoroondo, pave paine hukama hwakati pakati pemakore eEl Niño nemabasa ezvipembenene zvinotama zvakaita semhashu. Muna 2023-24, kusanganiswa kwekupisa kwakanyanya neEl Niño kwakakonzera kushanda kusina kujairika kwezvipembenene zvakaita semachena nezvipembenene mumisika yakawanda yenzvimbo dzinopisa.
Zvinhu zviri muchiteshi uye kumanikidzwa kwemari: Mumakore ane mamiriro ekunze akaipisisa ekurima, kubviswa kwezvinhu zviri muchiteshi chekugovera kunowanzo nonoka nechikamu chimwe kusvika zviviri muzvina. Mumusika weBrazil munguva yekudzikiswa kwezvinhu zviri muchitoro muna 2023-24, El Niño yakaunza mvura yakawanda munharaunda, uye zvirwere zvesoya (zvakaita seAsian soybean rust) mune dzimwe nzvimbo zvakanyanya kuipa nekuda kwenzvimbo ine hunyoro hwakawanda. Kusiyanisa uku kwenzvimbo kune vanotumira kunze kwenyika vekuChina zvinoreva kuti mukati megore rimwe chete, zviratidzo zvekudiwa kubva kumisika yakasiyana zvinogona kunge zvakasiyana zvachose.
Kumanikidzwa kwakabatana kubva kumafetereza nemishonga yezvipembenene: Zvakakosha kuziva kuti kusvika kweEl Niño muna 2026, pamwe chete nekumanikidzwa kwekutakura zvinhu muStrait of Hormuz nekuda kwemamiriro ezvinhu muMiddle East, kwakatoisa dambudziko pakutengeswa kwefetereza yeurea nephosphate kunze kwenyika. Mumushumo wake munaKurume gore rino, Paul Donovan, nyanzvi yezvehupfumi yeUBS, akataura zvakajeka kuti: "Kushomeka kwemafetereza enitrogen kungasave dambudziko guru kumitengo yekurima gore rino; El Niño yakanyanya kunaka."
Kuvimbika kwemamodheru emamiriro ekunze kwaderera.
Muzviitiko zvakanyanya, kuvimbika kwemamodeli emamiriro ekunze kuchaderera. Mushumo weJRC unotaura zvakajeka kuti kana chiitiko ichi chikasvika padanho "risina kumboitika", muenzaniso wacho wapfuura kungobva pane zvakaitika kare.°C muNiño 3.4 haisati yamboitika munguva yezvinyorwa zvezviridzwa. Chiitiko chakafanana muna 1877-78 chakakonzera nzara pasi rose, asi hatina data remazuva ano rekuita fananidzo yakasimba.
Saka, nzvimbo yechinyorwa chino ndeiyi: Ronga njodzi zvichibva pazviitiko "zvakasimba kusvika zvakasimba kwazvo" mukati me70% yehuwandu hwezvingangoitika semamiriro ekutanga, pane kubheja pane mamiriro ekumashure e +4°C. Chekutanga chatove chakanyanya kuoma uye chine nhoroondo dzakawanda dzekuvimba nadzo.
Chimwe chinhu chinoita kuti vanhu vasave nechokwadi ndechekuti kurima kweChina kuri kuita sei. Mumakore achangopfuura, China yakawedzera zvakanyanya mari yayo munyevero dzezvemamiriro ekunze uye zvivakwa zvekudiridza. Kugona kwayo kutsungirira kusanaya kwemvura hakuna kuenzana nekwa1997-98. Mamiriro ezvinhu muIndia akafanana - nzira yekudiridza mushure meGreen Revolution inofukidza chikamu chikuru chenzvimbo dzinorimwa mupunga, zvichiwedzera kugona kwayo kukurira mamiriro ekunze asina kujairika. Zvisinei, ruzivo rwenhoroondo rwunoratidza zvakajeka divi renjodzi.
Chiitiko cheEl Niño cha2026 chingangove chatotanga. Mubvunzo chaiwo ndewekuti chakanyanya kusimba, uye kuti mhedzisiro yemhepo negungwa zvichaisundira here kupfuura zvinyorwa zvenhoroondo.
Kune zvekurima pasi rose, izvi zvinoreva kuti nguva yekusaziva zviri kuitika icharamba yakavhurika kubva muhafu yechipiri yegore rino kusvika muchirimo cha2027. Kune indasitiri yezvekurima, izvi zvinoratidza kusiyana kwezvinodiwa munharaunda uye kuyedzwa kwekushushikana kwekugadzikana kwecheni yekugovera.
Nhoroondo inotiudza kuti migumisiro yekurima yechiitiko cheEl Niño ine nguva yekunonoka kwemwedzi mitanhatu kusvika gumi nemiviri - kurasikirwa kwechokwadi kwegoho kunowanzoonekwa chete mushure mekunge chiitiko chacho chasvika padanho repamusoro. Izvi zvinoreva kuti mitengo iri kutengeswa pari zvino inogona kunge isina kuenzana nemutengo wakazara munjodzi iyi.
Nguva yekutumira: Chikumi-23-2026
