Chibage, chiri pamusoro pezvirimwa zvitatu zvikuru zvekudya muChina, ndicho chine nzvimbo yakakura yekudyara uye chinoburitsa zvakawanda kupfuura zvimwe zvirimwa zvose zvekudya. Chine chinzvimbo chakakosha mukuona kuti chikafu chakachengeteka munyika, chichitsigira kukura kweindasitiri yezvikafu uye chikamu chekugadzira chikafu chakadzama. Mumakore achangopfuura, chichikanganiswa nezvinhu zvakawanda zvakaita sekugadziriswa kwemaitiro emuno nekunze kwenyika, kudzikira kwemitengo nguva nenguva, uye kukwira kuri kuramba kuchikwira kwemitengo yekugadzira, indasitiri yechibage iri kutarisana nedambudziko re "kuburitsa zvakawanda asi kushanda zvishoma".
Munyaya iyi, zvichibva padata guru reindasitiri yechibage muChina, bepa iri rinoongorora zviratidzo zvakakosha zvakaita sekugadzira, mitengo yemusika, kutengeserana kwekunze kwenyika nekutengesa kunze kwenyika, chimiro chemitengo uye mari yekudyara. Rinoongorora mamiriro ekuwanikwa kwezvinhu nezvinodiwa, mafambiro ekuchinja kwemitengo uye shanduko yemari inowanikwa mumusika wechibage wemuno, uye kunyanya kuenzanisa mutsauko wemitengo yekudyara chibage nemari inowanikwa pakati peChina neUnited States.
Kuongorora Mamiriro Ekurima Chibage muChina
1.1. Nzvimbo iyi yave nekukura kwakanaka kwemakore matatu akatevedzana.
Zvichienderana nenhamba dzeNational Bureau of Statistics, muna 2025, nzvimbo yekudyara chibage muChina yakasvika 6,744.12 miriyoni mu (inenge maeka mamiriyoni 674), kuwedzera kwe330.15 miriyoni mu zvichienzaniswa negore ra2024, nekuwedzera kweinenge 0.49%. Zvakadzokera padanho repamusoro renhoroondo ra2015. Zvisinei, kukura kwave kuchiratidza kudzikira zvishoma nezvishoma, zvichidzika kubva pa4.99% muna 2021 kusvika pa0.49% muna 2025, zvichiratidza kuti nzvimbo yekuwedzera nzvimbo yekudyara chibage muChina yava shoma.
1.2. Kubuda kunodarika matani mamiriyoni mazana matatu
Kubva muna 2015 kusvika 2025, kurimwa kwechibage muChina kwakaratidza maitiro ekuti "kudzikira kwekutanga kwozowedzera". Zvichienzaniswa nekukwira kwe "U-shaped" munzvimbo yekudyara, kukurumidza kupora kwekurima kwakakurumidza uye kuwedzera kwacho kwakakura. Kubva muna 2015 kusvika 2018, yaive nguva yekuderera kudiki, nekuderera kwekurima kubva pamamiriyoni 264,992.2 matani kusvika pamamiriyoni 257,173.9 matani, kudzikira kweinenge 2.95%. Kubva muna 2019 kusvika 2025, yakapinda munguva yekukura kunoramba kuripo. Kunze kwekugadziriswa kudiki muna 2020, yakawana kukura kwakanaka kwemakore mashanu akateedzana, ichikwira kubva pamamiriyoni 26,077.89 matani kusvika pamamiriyoni 30,123.5 matani, kuwedzera kweinenge 15.51%. Muna 2025, kurimwa kwechibage muChina kwakapfuura matani mamiriyoni 300 kekutanga, zvichiisa rekodhi itsva yenhoroondo.
1.3. Kurongeka kweNyika yeIndasitiri yeChibage
Muna 2024, kugadzirwa kwechibage mumapurovhinzi gumi anotevera - Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Sichuan, neYunnan - kwaive pakati penzvimbo dzepamusoro 1 kusvika ku10 munyika yese. Huwandu hwekugadzirwa kwepurovhinzi yega yega hwakapfuura matani mamiriyoni zana - huwandu hwematani mamiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi masere nemapfumbamwe nemakumi mapfumbamwe nematanhatu nemakumi matanhatu nematanhatu (anenge matani mabhiriyoni maviri nemakumi mana nerimwe nerimwe), zvichireva 81.68% yehuwandu hwechibage hwenyika. Pakati pavo, Heilongjiang yakaramba iri pamusoro maererano nehuwandu hwekugadzirwa, ichisvika matani mamiriyoni mazana mana nemakumi mashanu nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemana nemakumi mapfumbamwe nemana, zvichireva 15.55% yehuwandu hwekugadzirwa kwenyika.
2.1. Kudiwa kweVatengi uye Maitiro eMitengo
Kubva pamaonero ekushandiswa kwechikafu, mugore remari ra2024/2025, huwandu hwese hwechibage hwakashandiswa muChina hwaive matani angangoita mamiriyoni 297.86. Pakati peizvi, huwandu hwechikafu hwakashandiswa hwakaita sehwakanyanya, hunosvika matani angangoita mamiriyoni 193.50, huchisvika anenge 64.96% yehuwandu hwese hwekushandiswa. Muhuwandu hwechikafu, kurima nguruve kwaive ne50%, uye huwandu hwechikafu chehuku hwakaita anenge 40%. Kushandiswa kwemaindasitiri kwakatevera zvakanyanya, nehuwandu hwechikafu hunosvika mamiriyoni 83.40, huchisvika anenge 28%. Mumakore achangopfuura, nekuenderera mberi kwekuwedzera kwesimba rekugadzira, huwandu hwechikafu hunoshandiswa mumaindasitiri hwave hwakagadzikana zvakanyanya. Kugona kwekugadzira kunonyanya kupararira munzvimbo dzinogadzira chibage kuNortheast neNorth China, nehuwandu hwese huchisvika anopfuura 80% yehuwandu hwese. Kushandiswa kwembeu kudiki, huchisvika anenge 0.43%. Zvose, huwandu hwechikafu pamwe chete nekushandiswa mumaindasitiri hwaive neanopfuura 92%, inova ndiyo simba guru rekushandisa chibage muChina.
Kubva pakutanga kwa2023 kusvika kutanga kwa2026, mitengo yechibage yemuno yairatidza kudzikira kushoma, ichidzika kubva pa3.04 yuan pakirogiramu muna Ndira 2023 kusvika pa2.5 yuan pakirogiramu muna Kurume 2026, nekuderera kweinenge 17.76%. Munguva imwe cheteyo, mitengo yechibage yepasi rose yakaratidzawo kudzikira, ichidzika kubva pa2.82 yuan pakirogiramu kusvika pa2.24 yuan pakirogiramu, nekuderera kweinenge 20.57%. Kudzikira kwemitengo yepasi rose kwaiwanzoitika, uye zvese zvakaratidza kudzikira kwemitengo, asi mwero wemitengo yemuno waiwanzokwira kupfuura wepasi rose munguva zhinji.
2.2. Kuongorora Maitiro Ekutengeserana Kwekupinza Nekuburitsa Zvinhu Kunze Kwenyika
Zvichienderana nedata rezvetsika dzeChina, muna 2025, huwandu hwezviyo zvine chekuita nechibage zvakaunzwa kuChina hwaive matani mamiriyoni 266.35, izvo zvaive zvakakwirira nematani mamiriyoni 213 pane huwandu hwezvinhu zvakaunzwa kunze kwenyika (matani mamiriyoni 53.38); huwandu hwezvinhu zvakaunzwa kunze kwenyika hwaive madhora ekuAmerica mamiriyoni 715, zvichireva inenge 0.34% yehuwandu hwezvinhu zvekurima zvakaunzwa kunze kwenyika muna 2025 (madhora mabhiriyoni 207.41 emadhora ekuAmerica); huwandu hwezvinhu zvakaunzwa kunze kwenyika hwaive madhora ekuAmerica mamiriyoni 404, zvichireva inenge 0.39% yehuwandu hwezvinhu zvekurima zvakaunzwa kunze kwenyika muna 2025 (madhora mabhiriyoni 104.16 emadhora ekuAmerica); kushomeka kwekutengeserana kwakasvika madhora ekuAmerica mabhiriyoni 3.11.
Kubva pamaonero ezvekutengeserana, muna 2025, zvigadzirwa zvikuru zvechibage zvakapinzwa kunze kwenyika muChina zvaive "chibage, kunze kwezvekudyara", "chibage chinotapira chakaomeswa nechando", "starch yechibage", "chibage chinotapira chisina kugadziriswa kana kuchengetedzwa nenzira yevhiniga", "hupfu hwechibage", "chibage chekudyara", nezvimwewo, zvese zvikamu gumi. Chinhu chakapinzwa kunze kwenyika zvakanyanya chaive "chibage, kunze kwezvekudyara" - chine huwandu hwematani 2,646,290.81 (anenge makirogiramu 264.63 miriyoni) uye kukosha kwekupinzwa kunze kwenyika kwemadhora ekuAmerica 692,642,700 (anenge mamiriyoni 693 emadhora ekuAmerica), zvichiita 99.35% uye 96.82% yehuwandu hwese hwekupinzwa kunze kwenyika uye kukosha kwekupinzwa kwezvinhu zvine chekuita nechibage muChina mugore rese ra2025, zvichiteerana.
Zvigadzirwa zvikuru zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvinosanganisira "starch yechibage", "chibage chinotapira chinogadziriswa kana kuchengetedzwa nenzira dzisina acetic", "chibage chinotapira chakaomeswa nechando", "mamwe mafuta echibage nezvinobva maari", "chibage chemafuro", nezvimwewo, zvine zvikamu gumi. Pakati pazvo, chigadzirwa chine huwandu hukuru hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika i "starch yechibage" - huwandu hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika muna 2025 i213,444.1 matani (anenge matani mamiriyoni 21.34), uye kukosha kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika i81.9832 mamiriyoni emadhora ekuAmerica (anenge 0.82 mamiriyoni emadhora ekuAmerica), zvichiita 39.99% uye 20.29% yehuwandu hwese hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika uye kukosha kwekutengesa kunze kwenyika kwezvigadzirwa zvine chekuita nechibage muChina muna 2025 zvichiteerana. Chigadzirwa chine kukosha kukuru kwekutengeswa kunze kwenyika "chibage chinotapira chakagadziriswa kana kuchengetedzwa nenzira dzisina acetic" - huwandu hwekutengeswa kunze kwenyika muna 2025 i172,079.29 matani (anenge matani mamiriyoni 17.21), uye kukosha kwekutengeswa kunze kwenyika i181.123 mamiriyoni emadhora ekuAmerica (anenge 1.81 mamiriyoni emadhora ekuAmerica), zvichiita 32.24% uye 44.82% yehuwandu hwese hwekutengeswa kunze kwenyika uye kukosha kwekutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwezvigadzirwa zvine chekuita nechibage muChina muna 2025 zvichiteerana.
3. Kuongororwa Kwemutengo Nekubatsira Kwekudyara
3.1. Mutengo Wose paEka
Zvichienderana ne "National Agricultural Product Cost and Revenue Data Compilation", muna 2024, mutengo wese wechibage muChina waive 1,316.7 yuan. Zvichienzaniswa negore ra2023, iro raive 1,312.04 yuan, rakawedzera ne4.66 yuan, zvichireva kuwedzera kweinenge 0.36%. Kubva pane maonero enguva refu, mutengo wese wechibage muChina kubva muna 2014 kusvika 2024 wakaratidza kukwira kuri kuchinja. Munguva yemakore gumi, rakawedzera kubva pa1,063.89 yuan kusvika pa1,316.7 yuan, nekuwedzera kwe23.76%.
3.2. Huwandu Hwese Hwekubuda Kwemwedzi Mumwedzi
Zvichienderana nedata kubva ku "National Agricultural Cost and Revenue Data Compilation", kubva muna 2014 kusvika 2024, kukosha kwechibage paeka imwe neimwe muChina kwakaratidza kuchinja-chinja kwe "kutanga kudzikira, kwozowedzera, kwozodzikira zvakare zvakanyanya". Kubva muna 2014 kusvika 2016, kukosha kwekukohwa paeka imwe neimwe kwakadzikira kubva pa1,145.71 yuan kusvika pa765.89 yuan, nekuderera kwe33.15%. Zvadaro zvakapinda munguva yekukura kwemakore manomwe, uye zvakaramba zvichikwira kubva muna 2017 kusvika 2023, zvichisvika pakakwirira pe1,466.43 yuan muna 2023, nekuwedzera kukuru kwegore negore muna 2020, pa27.87%. Zvisinei, muna 2024, kukosha kwemari inobuda paeka imwe neimwe kwakadzikira kusvika pa1,093.94 yuan, nekudzikira kukuru kwegore negore kwe25.40%, zvichidzokera padanho ra2015 kusvika 2019.
3.3. Purofiti paAcre
Purofiti inowanikwa kubva mukurima chibage inoreva mari inowanikwa kubva mukudyara chibage mushure mekubvisa mari dzese dzekugadzira dzakadai sembeu, fetereza, vashandi, uye michina. Ndiyo chiratidzo chikuru chekuyera mabhenefiti ehupfumi ekurima chibage. Zvinoenderana nedata kubva ku "National Agricultural Product Cost and Revenue Compilation", zvichibva papurofiti yechibage paeka imwe neimwe muChina kubva muna 2014 kusvika 2024, mari yekudyara inoratidza hunhu hwe "kuchinjana purofiti nekurasikirwa, nekuchinja-chinja kuri kuwedzera mumakore achangopfuura": muna 2014, paive nepurofiti diki ye81.82 yuan, kubva muna 2015 kusvika 2019, paive nekurasikirwa kwemakore mashanu akatevedzana (kurasikirwa kwakanyanya muna 2016 kwaive 299.7 yuan), kubva muna 2020 kusvika 2023, paive nepurofiti yemakore mana akatevedzana, uye muna 2022, yakasvika pakakwirira pe163.25 yuan, asi muna 2024, yakaderera zvakanyanya kusvika pa -222.76 yuan, ichidzokera pakurasikirwa kwakadzama. Tichifunga nezve data remutengo wezvinhu zvakabuda, kunyangwe kukosha kwemutengo kwakadzikira ne25.4% muna 2024, purofiti yakadzikira kubva papurofiti ye154.39 yuan kusvika pakurasikirwa ne222.76 yuan, zvichiratidza kuti kumanikidzwa kwemutengo kwawedzera zvakanyanya kana kuti kudzikira kwemutengo kwapfuura zvakanyanya zvaitarisirwa.
Nguva yekutumira: Chivabvu-19-2026
